SIMULATION OF RAINFALL OVER WEST NUSA TENGGARA PROVINCE BASED ON ECHAM5/MPI-OM AND GFDL CM2.1

Dian Nur Ratri, Mugni Hadi Hariadi

Abstract


Simulasi curah hujan di Propinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat dipelajari dengan menggunakan Regional Climate Model (RCM) Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) dari CSIRO yang didukung oleh model global (General Circulation Models atau GCMs) yaitu ECHAM5/MPI-OM and GFDL CM2.1. Tiga periode yang dikaji dalam studi ini adalah 1980–1999, 2050–2069, dan 2080–2099. Untuk simulasi periode 1980–1999 dievaluasi terhadap observasional data. Secara umum, untuk simulasi pola curah hujan tahunan periode 2050–2069 dan 2080–2099,  ECHAM5/MPI-OM and GFDL CM2.1 menunjukkan pola simulasi yang hampir sama. Namun, simulasi kedua model global ini untuk curah hujan tahunan periode observasi (1980–1999) berbeda. Bila dilihat secara musiman, simulasi model untuk musim kemarau periode 2060 dan periode 2090, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and GFDL CM2.1 jika dibandingkan tidak menunjukkan perbedaan yang signifikan, dan sebaliknya pada musim hujan.

 

Rainfall over the West Nusa Tenggara Province was simulated by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) - the CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) driven by two host General Circulation Models (GCMs), ECHAM5/MPI-OM and GFDL CM2.1. Three periods considered for this study were 1980–1999, 2050–2069, and 2080–2099 for the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas emission scenario A2. Simulations for the 1980–1999 periods were evaluated against observational data. The finding shows that in general, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and GFDL CM2.1 did not show any significant behavior in simulating annual mean rainfall patterns for the period of 2050–2069 and period of 2080–2099. Nevertheless, for the current period (1980–1999) those both GCMs are markedly different in the simulation of annual mean rainfall. There are also simulations of seasonal mean rainfalls, dry and wet season, and show that ECHAM5/MPI-OM and GFDL CM2.1 are nearly similar in simulating dry season but not for the wet season.

Keywords


ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL CM2.1, GCM, RCM, Rainfall, Simulation of Rainfall, CCAM



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v15i2.178

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