Turbulence analysis on the flight of Etihad airways in Bangka Island using the WRF case study May 4, 2016

Bayu Retna Tri Andari, Nurjanna Joko Trilaksono, Muhammad Arif Munandar


Accurate weather forecasts should support the increase in safety of aviation operations in Indonesia. This weather forecast is needed, especially in detecting turbulence, considering that geographically Indonesia has effective solar radiation resulting in convective cloud formation. Convective clouds can trigger turbulence then produce disruption and even accidents on flights. This research uses a case study on the Etihad Airways flight on Bangka Island on May 4, 2016. At the time of the incident, there was turbulence at 39,000 feet altitude, and the aircraft did not enter the cloudy area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the turbulence in this study, which is downscaled up to 3 km with a microphysics parameterization of WRF Single Moment 6 Class (WSM6). The results were then verified using correlation and linear regression for temperature, wind direction, wind speed, and pattern resemblance between cloud fraction and the convective nuclei distribution. The turbulence is analyzed from the south-north and west-east vertical airflow. The turbulence spotted at 06.40 UTC when there is a quite strong updraft which can cause turbulence. The turbulence parameters used, such as the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) parameter, which has a value of 0.05 , Richardson number with a value of less than 0.25, and turbulence index (TI 1) with a maximum value of 4 x 10-7 s-2 found that turbulence was in a strong category. The turbulence that occurs in this study is identified as near cloud turbulence (NCT) event due to cloud formation observed in the west of the turbulence and intense updraft activity at the location of turbulence.


Turbulence, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), WRF Single Moment 6 Class (WSM6), downscaling, near cloud turbulence (NCT), temperature, wind, convective clouds, cloud fraction, convective nuclei distribution, Himawari satellite

Full Text:



Eick D 2013 Turbulence Related Accidents & Incidents Natl. Transp. Saf. Board

Kim J H, Chun H Y, Sharman R D and Keller T L 2011 Evaluations of Upper-Level Turbulence Diagnostics Performance Using the Graphical Turbulence Guidance ( GTG ) System and Pilot Reports ( PIREPs ) over East Asia J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 1936–52

Lane T P, Sharman R D, Trier S B, Fovell R G and Williams J K 2012 Recent advances in the understanding of near-cloud turbulence Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93 499–515

Sharman R and Lane T 2016 Aviation Turbulence: Process , Detection, Prediction

Molarin K and Svensson G 2013 Case study of CAT over the North Atlantic Ocean

Keller J L 1981 Prediction and Monitoring of Clear-Air Turbulence: an Evaluation of the Applicability of the Rawinsonde System. J. Appl. Meteorol. 20 686–92

Storer L N, Williams P D and Gill P G 2019 Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change Pure Appl. Geophys. 176 2081–95

Ellrod G P and Knapp D I 1992 An Objective Clear-Air Turbulence Forecasting Technique: Verification and Operational Use Weather Forecast. 7 150–65

Yang X, Fei J, Huang X, Cheng X, Carvalho L M V and He H 2015 Characteristics of mesoscale convective systems over China and its vicinity using geostationary satellite FY2 J. Clim. 28 4890–907

Sharman R D, B.Cornman L, G.Meymaris, Pearson J and Farrar T 2014 Description and Derived Climatologies of Automated In Situ Eddy-Dissipation-Rate Reports of Atmospheric Turbulence J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 1416–32

Trier S B, Sharman R D dan Lane T P 2012 Influences of Moist Convection on a Cold-Season Outbreak of Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) Mon. Weather Rev. 2477–97.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v23i3.912


  • There are currently no refbacks.


Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan

Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG)

» http://puslitbang.bmkg.go.id/jmg

Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika

e-ISSN : 2527-5372

p-ISSN : 1411-3082


Address : 

Jl. Angkasa 1 No. 2 Kemayoran, Jakarta Pusat 10720

» Phone : (+6221) 4246321 ext 1900

» Fax :(+6221) 65866238

Email Coordinator: najib.habibie@gmail.com

Plagiarism Tools


Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

  Creative Commons License